How's the Economy? Check the Waste

During the pandemic, Cedar Rapids saw waste and recycling tonnages surge by 12.5%, driven by increased consumption and federal stimulus checks. However, the post-pandemic period, marked by rising inflation, saw a significant drop in waste and recycling volumes. Hall noted that historical data mirrored this trend, with waste tonnages inversely correlating with unemployment and inflation rates. As she explained, “Increased financial prosperity [leads to] increased consumption [which leads to] increased waste tonnages, right? Reduced financial prosperity [leads to] decreased consumption [which leads to] reduced waste tonnages. We can use the past to predict the future.” 

Hall reflected on the pre-COVID economic expansion, when waste tonnages grew steadily each year. “We were seeing year after year increase in waste tonnages, and then COVID hit, and as we all know, anybody in the industry- the tonnages went crazy. They went through the roof, especially curbside collections. Everybody was sheltering at home.” When the pandemic eased and folks resumed outside activities, inflation suddenly increased, leading to a decrease in waste and recycling volumes. Her interest piqued, Hall began asking local municipalities to send her their waste tonnage data so she could compare and see if similar patterns were occurring elsewhere.  

Throughout her research, she analyzed the waste tonnages recorded in 2008, the year the recession hit the United States, causing major unemployment across the country. She found that “garbage tonnages decrease at a much slower, steadier rate than recycling tonnages do. Recycling tonnages basically fall off a cliff when we go into an economic contraction, and there’s a lag of time when they will rebound and when they decline.” The pattern repeated in the recovery phase: in 2014, as the economy improved, and in 2016, when household median income returned to pre-recession levels, Cedar Rapids experienced a spike in waste and recycling tonnages. She observed that “the inflation spike had more of an impact on waste tonnages than unemployment did. Inflation impacts everybody equally, whereas an unemployment spike does not affect everybody equally.” 

By comparing the local municipalities’ data with the national tonnage reports during and after the 2008 recession, Hall confirmed that the same patterns were evident: “It follows the same exact trend that we saw in Iowa.” She also identified economic tipping points specific to Iowa, noting that, “In Iowa, when unemployment reaches 4% and above, we start to see the decrease in waste. When it reaches below 4%, we start to see the increases. So 4% is kind of the tipping point in Iowa.”  

Hall emphasized the practical uses of this data: “You can analyze past trends and calculate what your local percentage rates are that impact your waste tonnages. You can analyze current economic trends to see where the economy is looking like it might go… utilizing this to forecast and budget constraints.” Hall's analysis highlights the often-overlooked link between economic trends and waste and resource management, revealing that shifts in consumption patterns during economic cycles have significant implications for city operations and budgeting.

By studying past data and pinpointing key economic indicators, specifically unemployment and inflation rates, Hall underscores how municipalities can better anticipate changes in waste tonnages and adjust their resources accordingly. This approach not only equips cities like Cedar Rapids to manage operational demands but also provides a powerful forecasting tool to navigate future economic fluctuations, ultimately ensuring more resilient and adaptive waste management practices.